cyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 9 months agoNate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.www.natesilver.netexternal-linkmessage-square4fedilinkarrow-up10arrow-down10
arrow-up10arrow-down1external-linkNate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.www.natesilver.netcyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 9 months agomessage-square4fedilink
minus-squareObjectivityIncarnate@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up1·edit-211 days agoThis is a perfectly succinct, textbook example of Outcome Bias. Betting $1 with a 1 in 3 chance to win $2 is objectively a bad idea; the odds are against you. It doesn’t cease to be a bad idea if you happen to win the $2 after 1 bet.
This is a perfectly succinct, textbook example of Outcome Bias.
Betting $1 with a 1 in 3 chance to win $2 is objectively a bad idea; the odds are against you. It doesn’t cease to be a bad idea if you happen to win the $2 after 1 bet.