The federal government could default on its debt as soon as July, a new forecast from the Bipartisan Policy Center warns, raising pressure on Congress for action.
The prominent think tank forecast Monday that the so-called “X-Date” would likely arrive between mid-July and early October.
Adding further onto your point emphasizing why this will be severe: Borrowing will become more expensive, and we can’t just stop spending to stop borrowing. Much of the current debt is in short term positions that regularly get re-issued. The cost of issuing new short term debts just to replace the current ones coming due will increase even if spending stays the same (or decreases).
And of course, there’s a huge impact to the dollar’s value internationally if major financial markets shift away from holding US debt. You know the trade deficit Republicans like to rage about … Yeah, it’ll get a lot worse when fewer people want to hold US dollars for the purpose of investing in US bonds.