Emboldened by the Trump administration’s split with Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to directly test the resolve of the postwar Western military alliance.
In an interview with German business daily Handelsblatt, the chairman of European aerospace and defense group Airbus warned the continent needs to arm itself now that it’s likely the United States will not honor its obligations under NATO’s Article 5 common defense clause.
“There are strong indications that Russia is preparing an attack on NATO’s eastern flank,” René Obermann told the newspaper on Monday, adding that Putin will not likely wait until Europe has enough time to build up its own sovereign capabilities for deterrence before striking.
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Obermann argues the Russian dictator has placed his country’s economy on a wartime footing with a fiscally unsustainable 10% of gross domestic product diverted to its military, according to Obermann. That’s five times the NATO minimum target, and Putin also plans to mobilize 1.5 million soldiers—the world’s second largest standing army after China.
With so much already invested, ending his expansionist campaign and returning to peace risks the one thing Putin appears to fear most—political upheaval. That may be one reason why a joint military exercise is planned for this year in Russia’s neighboring client state of Belarus.
“That is reminiscent of the events leading up to the Ukraine invasion. Furthermore, the internal pressure [in Russia] to deliver new victories through military conquest likely will grow,” he said.
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@queermunist@lemmy.ml
@rimu@piefed.social
Mr. Obermann may have a business interest here, but his remarks regarding Russia’s economy are absolutely valid. Putin has turned Russia into a ‘war economy’ with the whole country depending on war. Even Russian economists -including from the Central Bank- warn that the country will be facing difficult times if peace breaks out (which may also mean it would be difficult for Putin to stay in power as soon as the war ends and there is no enemy anymore).
So Obermann’s comment that “the internal pressure [in Russia] to deliver new victories through military conquest likely will grow”, is very real. Putin put his country on a war path for the long term. For example, Russia’s defense minister is an economist claiming that war would be a requirement for economic growth (this is, of course, complete rubbish, but this comes from Russia’s government).
I wrote a comment regarding Russia’s economy in a different thread and don’t want to repeat it, so here is the link if you are interested: https://slrpnk.net/post/19670037/14488418
Russia’s war economy is partially a response to sanctions, not just some cynical power grab by Putin. If the sanctions end they’ll be able to wind down and focus on peaceful development.
Russians do not have an endless appetite for war. They aren’t orcs.
You realize attacking NATO would trigger direct attacks in Russia, right? It wouldn’t be like Ukraine, which struggles to hit Russia directly. NATO has nukes.
They should prove it by not starting endless fucking wars then. Maybe honor at least one(1) fucking peace agreement you’ve made.
Russia has been terrorizing their neighboring countries ever since the millennium. Actually, when you go further back in history, you could say that being unspeakably cruel to their neighbors (and their own population) is one of the core traits of Russians.
By the way, Ukraine does not struggle to hit targets deep into Russia. For the most part they’ve been prohibited to do so by western arms suppliers.
Next time just don’t reply at all if you have nothing of value to add.
Do you find it of value to spout plain bigotry? Given the history of US military action should I say it is one of the core traits of Americans to be blood-thirsty ghouls?
I’m spouting historical facts. You’re spouting whataboutism. Why is it that you people can’t stomach criticism of your holy Russian empire without deflecting to the USA?
But yes, I would in fact lay a similar criticism on the US and its forever wars. However, up to the current Trump administration, the way they treat their neighbors wasn’t comparable. But it seems quite obvious where Donny gets his ideas and so now Canada and Greenland are being threatened with annexation.
People are independent of their governments, I don’t think someone is less human because of the country they were born in.
Where do you get this? Even the Russian experts -those from the Central Bank, from the universities, and other entities under the direct control of the Kremlin- openly refuse such claims. The numbers -from Rosstat, Russia’s national statistics office, and other Kremlin-affiliated institutions- are painting a completely different picture. Even the Russian state-media openly say that Russia’s economy is in for a long-term winter, e.g., the country will be facing severe labour shortage, staggering inflation, troubles to payout state pensions.