Tesla dealerships are getting protested and, in some cases, vandalized. Sales are down on 9 of the top 10 countries Tesla sells in. Yet Tesla stock is up. Twitter is a cesspool of nazi-themed bots, and somehow just pulled in $1bn and raised its valuation back up to $44bn.
How is any of this possible? It seems really artificial to me, but I don’t really understand business.
The value of a private company is a number that can be pulled from their ass, right?
Before: there was an idiot that wanted to pay $54.20 for each of the 800 million publicly traded shares = 44 billion valuation even if the yearly earnings after all expenses (EBITDA) was only 680 million (data public, as required by sec) so the board sued that guy to force him to pay when backed down as that valuation was insanely high and the board would never get such a big golden parachute
Now: we don’t need to publish financial data anymore but CEO says that the company is super profitable, valuation is back to 44 billion, trust us 😉
The PE ratio for most established carmakers is near 7. Tsla is near 120 last I checked. Some bubbles pop.
Feel ?
That’s what we call the dead-cat bounce. The further and faster a stock price falls, the more people think it will go back up and buy in at the new low price, thus at some point there is a short-lived reversal of the decline before it continues as it was. Although much of Tesla’s value recently was from a big jump in November (getting a fancy new oval-shaped office will do that for you), so this is likely as much a correction of that overreaction as it is some protest of or loss of faith in Musk.
Because he is. Tesla has always been overvalued due to him making bullshit announcements that dumbass investors actually believe.
Adam Conover recently made a video explaining this very thing.
Fascism. Once a p single private interest controls the government, they can effectively do whatever they want in the private sector, making them a sure bet for investors
Like when Tesla started lying about their cars fully driving themselves?
It is corruption and market manipulation at the highest possible level because americans elected an russian asset into the office. Shortly after a treaaonous judge claimed president can do whatever they want. And aparrently you are only allowed to stop crime when it’s occurring, not treason.
It’s the largest pump and dump scheme in history and it’s being done in the open.
Yeah, they are literally begging maga idiots to buy TSLA to keep the price up while executives are unloading shares. International sales completely gone. Domestic sales declining. Cybertruck flopped. Tariffs are going to cripple their production. Competing EV are making TSLA look like amateurs. Like, what’s the upside?
After convincing them that EVs were trash no less.
Roll coal!!!
Nah. I have an ev and love it, but it’s not a Tesla.
I don’t understand how Musk does it either. It does feel artificial, robotic even. Somehow, he pulls it off. He must have help. Like, long-term help. Like back when he created pay-pal. I guess the market looks at musks track record and sees his successes.
“created”
Yet Tesla stock is up.
Well, over what period of time are you talking about?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/
For the day, TSLA is up 5.27%.
For five days, down 0.51%.
For one month, down 26.37%.
Year-to-date, down 38.41%.
For six months, up 4.39%.
Like, depends on the start and end time that you’re looking at.
For 1 year, up 45.59% (this is fucking crazy!) For 5 years, up 625.30%
This is not normal for any stock, even if the company was doing good. But the company isn’t doing good.
Their market share is small and hasn’t grown in ways promised. The Cybertruck was a disaster, with almost no customers, only legal in some parts of the world (parts without proper regulations) and a bunch of delays and technical issues. Demand has been decreasing, even before Musks latest public Nazi shit. Revenue is down. There appears to have been fraud in the numbers they did report and those weren’t good to start with. The whole promised future of self driving cars has turned out to be total BS and only the very strict anti-sue terms has saved them on this point. Other companies in the same space are doing better on all fronts.
Yet somehow the stock is worth more than the rest of the market they are in? It makes zero sense and you can bet your ass illegal shit has been done to get it to this point.
Musk has been begging people to please hold on to their stock. And if I know one thing, if the big shareholders start saying shit like that, sell immediately! It’s a sign they are going to sell and you need to get out before all the money is gone.
My impression is that the stock market is not really interested in real-world value. It’s interested in projections of future stock price. And those things should be coupled, but they can be very decoupled sometimes.
I don’t understand enough to known why yet though.
People have the memory of a goldfish nowadays.
I was alive during the 2000 and 2008 market crashes, but also the 2020 non-crash.
It could be that Tesla really has cracked autonomous driving by summer, as Elon claims, and then they will recover a lot of market value.
But more realistically, as the saying goes, even a dead cat bounces.
Markets never go down in perfect lines. There are dead cat bounces along the way.
Checkout how good their fucking reduction to using only cameras, instead of radar or lidar, line everyone else, is working out
Here is a nice comparison between lidar and Tesla’s solution with only using cameras:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJL3htsDyQ&t=491You can clearly see the downsides and why those sensors are just not sufficient in any way for a self driving car
Tesla really has cracked autonomous driving by summer, as Elon claims
He really says that??
He must be sooo desperate LMAO
He’s been saying “fully autonomous” by next year for literally like 10 years, lol. Short memories indeed.
I believed in him since like 2001. I stopped believing in him by 2015.
to be fair what they’ve built is amazing, and good enough for 80-90% of the time. but it needs to be 99.9999% of the time and thats not this year. they will release something of course, and rely on remote human intervention, and many people will die. but the media wont mention it and the statistics will be buried, and when it rains or is foggy or too hot etc millions will all be stranded.
What they’ve achieved is irrelevant. They’re never gonna achieve 99.999% with standard cameras + AI for decades. Elon can’t magically manifest the safety of Lidar through hopes and prayers; yet he believes he can, so the only logical conclusion is that he’s a complete fucking moron con artist, only skilled at separating people from their money.
If you don’t understand this yet, print me out some examples of your best code, and email me a list of your top accomplishments from the last week!
They’re behind other manufacturers in some ways: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJL3htsDyQ
The idea that many people will die in Tesla Autopilot accidents and the media won’t mention it is laughable.
I hope that no one will die, but if they do, the media will be all over it. It’s way too high profile. He might be able to bury the statistics, since those are mostly under the control of the federal government.
Something that is very easy to forget is that stock value is only very loosely tied to actual company value.
Stock value is based on what people are prepared to pay for the stock, not what the company is worth.
Say that I create a company that makes newspaper hats for tanks in Ukraine, something utterly worthless, I am the only employee and my inventory is just yesterday’s newspapers that I found in the gutter.
My company has zero actual value, but I decide to create 50000 shares of my company, sell one to my friend for €2, and suddenly my company’s market value would look like €100000.
You’ve just explained most Tech Startup unicorns, by the way.
You’ll need to have 500k shares total for the valuation to be 1M
Yes but 50.000 × 2 = 100.000, large numbers get confusing without dots
Sorry I should have been clear when I edited my post, the previous commenter was correct, I messed up the math.
Yep, good catch!
From someone who doesn’t know shit about finance, thank you for the explanation
TSLA has been notoriously impossible to short the last few years. I firmly believe this DD from 5 years ago that Elon figured out a way to pump their stock value through gamma squeezing with OTM call options. The DD is 5 years old, but it was spot on and for a time, the stock just kept going up to where it was inexplicably worth more than it’s next 10 competitors combined. I think the actual sell volume of the world was outpacing his ability to do this for a time, but he is going to continue to try.
https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/hk7nqe/tesla_infinity_call_gamma_squeeze/
Phillip Low fired him with cause for attempting to manipulate his company’s stock in 2021.
Elon has repeatedly trolled the SEC and says he does not respect them. He’s absolutely pumping it up to keep it afloat, and it may even return to ath.
Elon is a manipulative piece of shit, and that’s why I do not put it below him to have used his vast wealth to have undermined the 2024 election and believe he had a part in hacking it. Hell, he can’t even play video games fairly as we all already saw.
Good find. I am convinced Tesla is the Enron of our day.
The scheme only works as long as most people keep holding their stock. Once they start selling, it will be a very quick road down.
And with the global outcry against the company, I don’t think that day is far off. They know there’s going to be reduced demand for their products, because even those who don’t feel like they want to boycott Tesla out of principle might still reconsider buying one if they don’t want to deal with the shame/risk they’ll get from others.
And then he will be a dead Hopefully. Through Vanguard and Blackrock the Saudis and Qataris are said to have substantial investments in Tesla. And especially the former are not kind people when it comes to fraud to their disadvantage.
You are not wrong. Elon Musk is the PR man for the companies he either founded or have a majority of shares in. However, his companies’s products and services are not actually superior to his competitors. Take Tesla, the cars are not road-worthy, they are expensive, the battery sets on fire more often, and uses inferior image-detecting camera when driving automatically. Meanwhile, Chinese competitors are cheaper, more safe and use better LIDAR technology for automated driving (but only because the Chinese government heavily subsidise in EV companies making their cars far superior).
So, as someone already mentioned, hype up your company and convince anyone to buy shares, then your companies’s valuations increase tremendously. It creates the illusion that your company is productive and valuable when in reality it is not.
Which is pretty much how Trump has lived his life, but less successfully. No wonder they’re friends. It’s a coop grift.
Why is the alternative to Tesla on here is always “Chinese EV” when traditional manufacturers exist and make better products? We don’t want Chinese dumping their cars and leading to the loss of even more manufacturing jobs in North America and Europe.
Fucking hell, the fight against globalization truly was for nothing, people these days are even defending it against their best interests…
Normally I’d be the one to say this is an unfairly harsh take, but when BYD is continuing the proud Chinese tradition of using slave labor to make cheaper products than the competition, I’m inclined to say that maybe they should be off the table as well.
Maybe EVs shouldn’t be as affordable until the industry is actually sustainable. I’d rather buy a vehicle made by union workers who are paid fairly for their labor, even if it’s more expensive.
Chinese EVs are cheaper, unfortunately, so they are competitive.
Fucking hell, the fight against globalization truly was for nothing, people these days are even defending it against their best interests…
Globalisation is not bad, it is mismanaged.
They’re cheaper as a dumping strategy to make us reliant on China after all local manufacturing is gone, just like China did for everything else.
Globalization lead to all the bullshit we’re currently living, good jobs left for Asia, people can’t afford housing. Yay globalization! If you want to keep local jobs you can’t be in favor of globalization.
We wanted cheaper products, and now we are reaping what we sow.
Globalisation is not bad, it is mismanaged. Why? There is no globally harmonised rules, policies and regulations to prevent exploitation of workers in third world countries to produce cheap products and services, compensate workers for their jobs being outsourced, prevent environmental degradation, and prevent over accumulation of wealth at the hands of miniscule amount of people. Norway can’t exactly tell Bangladesh they should pay the same wages that workers in Norway are getting.
How are those going to be resolved? A world government that implements rules and regulations uniformly; instead of dealing with different standards, regulations and policies of other countries-- or lack thereof in case of third world countries (which is why we have cheap goods because these countries offered themselves to be the world’s factory).
The world government is like the EU but on the world level. It should be able to address the unequal distribution of wealth, unequal division of labour and enviromental issues that the current lawless globalisation “order” has wreaked havoc both to humans and environment. Are you down for that kind of set up? I thought so.
Even then, with global trades comes the environmental impact of transporting goods all over the world. It’s not normal to expect the whole world to have access to the same things, it’s not normal that I can purchase a pineapple in Canada, especially not in the middle of winter. All regions of the world would be better served by focusing on local and adjacent productions. Hell, China understood that, they don’t rely on the rest of the world for their shit, they mostly produce what they need and export surplus and are laughing their way to the bank.
We can’t exactly stop shipping that is not pragmatic. That is like trying to stop air travel. What we can do is to promote alternatives where it is more practical and easier like converting to EV’s on the road, and using more renewable energy in power plants. Even if majority of CO2 consumption comes from shipping, a huge portion nevertheless comes from vehicles and electricity generation so switching to alternatives would have already made dramatic changes to reducing carbon emissions. Although, if shipping could sail on renewable energy (not that I am aware of), then that would be even better!
Autarky has been tried before and failed. Good luck growing coffee in China. Speaking of which, China is strangely the new champion of global free trade because they know they can’t produce and grow everything on their own; not because they make literally everything contrary to your statement.
For someone who is in another thread attacking someone for having an opinion on something you feel they aren’t relevant enough to have anyone to care about their opinion of,
You sure do have a lot of opinions.
If you looked at my comment history you’ll see that I mentioned that contrary to the person I’m talking about, my opinions aren’t shared in mainstream media. She can have all the opinions she wants and share them, I don’t give a crap about that, I’m concerned when mainstream media starts giving importance to the opinion of people who have no expertise on a subject.
The fight against globalisation? You’re in the wrong fight, my man.
Yeah, against the thing that lead the Western world to be dependent on China and to lose most of its manufacturing capacity and that lead to the disappearance of the middle class.
Maybe you’re too young to realize that back in the 80s and 90s some people were wise enough to understand that if the rich people on the right were fighting for it, it wasn’t good for regular folks.
And I’m wise enough to understand that fighting against globalisation is fighting against gravity, or the heat death of the universe.
All technological and societal advancement leads to globalisation. The fact we can have this argument right now is a result of globalisation.
If you don’t want globalisation, you might as we stop all world trade, give up on using the Internet altogether, and live like a vagabond in the hills somewhere.
We don’t want Chinese dumping their cars and leading to the loss of even more manufacturing jobs in North America and Europe.
Who is this we, here? I want this. The people employed in these manufacturing jobs are not people I am concerned about.
When China gets bored with subsidizing our economy, we can spin up new state of the art facilities.
We are being sold a lump go fear, uncertainty and doubt around this stuff by the people who profit off these industries.
You’re not concerned about the people around you that won’t be able to afford anything? You’re not concerned about the cost for society? You’re not concerned about the fact that you’re exporting jobs to another country that is now a monopoly that can just increase prices however it feels like because it’s clients don’t have any alternatives? You’re not concerned about a country you depend on turning around and becoming your enemy?
If you’re not concerned about any of that you don’t understand much of the world around you buddy.
Yes, that’s exactly why I’m for allowing countries that can do it cheaper to import their goods. It’s cheaper for everyone.
No one is owed a job, using the government to project jobs and profits cost us all. It is corporation socialism sold with the slogan, “think of the workers” – the fact that the right pushes for this agenda is a huge fucking red flag. They pick and choose the workers they pretend to care about and every single time it’s because there is a huge opportunity to extract profit from labor.
I think the peoblem here is I understand the world more than you. I didn’t use such a silly appeal to make my position because I use logical and you used feelings and insults.
So you just chose to ignore most of what I said and focused on “it costs me less right now, fuck you, I’ve got mine”
It was never about making things cheaper for people like you and me, it was always about making more profit by producing things with cheap labor and selling them for the same price.
Globalization was the right wing agenda of the 80s and 90s! You must just be too young to remember it.
Today we’re paying for it, one country elects an idiot and it fucks the supply chain for the whole world. Pandemic? Same thing. We don’t produce what we need locally so we’re dependent on the political will of other countries.
Hell, why do you think the US spread its military influence all over the world and spends so much on defence? To protect its monetary interests that depend on a global economy. If it had kept local jobs instead it would save a fortune!
Don’t talk as if you hate the right when you are clearly defending the neoliberal agenda.
We suffer today because we allowed the right to strip away workers rights. Entire generations have been convinced they are better off without collective bargaining.
Everything else is pure fucking noise.
Globalization is the excuse they use for why unions are bad but there are tons of jobs that cannot be unions with terrible wages so clearly globalization is not the problem but it is a very convient excuse because we get to blame Those People.
You’re still relying on making this personal. You aren’t at pure of thought as think yourself as you mouth these well established platitudes.
The idea I am discussing here is a pure libertarian stance on commerce and I understand why you are unable to label it correctly as the American Libertarian are just anti-tax morons who are too embarrassed to call themselves republicans.
The government should not be protecting industries via tariffs. Trump supporters love tariffs and agree with your stances therefore you are a Trump lover.
See how easy that was to paint you as something you likely are not? It’s far easier to label people so you can dismiss them than to attempt understanding a perspective that conflicts with your own.
The stock market is not the real economy.
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-stock-market-is-not-the-economy
- https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/wall-street-versus-main-street-why-the-disconnect
- https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/why-stock-market-is-not-economy
- https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/wall-street-vs-main-street-the-stock-market-is-not-the-economy/
Unironically also part of the reason why these fuckers are completely morally bankrupt.
